Mason-Dixon (10/28-29, likely voters, 10/8-9 in parens):
Jill Derby (D): 37 (38)
Dean Heller (R-inc): 50 (51)
(MoE: ±5%)
Mason-Dixon (10/28-29, likely voters, 10/8-9 in parens):
Dina Titus (D): 44 (40)
Jon Porter (R-inc): 44 (43)
Other: 3 (4)
(MoE: ±5%)
Recent polling by Research 2000 points to a much closer race in the 2nd District (although its sample seems a bit suspect), and the DCCC is up on the air with a new ad in support of Derby in the closing days. This one will be tough, but it’s possible that we could see an upset special here.
On the other hand, the 3rd District polling is much more in line with R2K’s work (they had Titus up by two). I’ve heard some general grumbling about Porter having a superior ad campaign in this race, but the changing nature of this district (namely, there are nearly 37,000 more registered Dems living there today than there were in 2006) may doom Porter, anyway. Any incumbent running in the mid-40s in a year like this is not in great shape.
…which have had any Democrats up by a lot. This includes Obama and down-ballot contests.
That R2K poll did undersample rural counties in NV-02, but I feel very confident that Dina Titus is going to win. Has Jon Porter been over 45% all year–including in his own polls?
Or is this another district where they have endorsed a candidate without putting any money behind that candidate?